February 2026
Mortgage Renewal in 2026: How Manitoba Homeowners Can Avoid Payment Shock and Protect Cash Flow
By The Spooner Group
By The Spooner Group
If you're heading into a mortgage renewal in 2026, you're probably hearing a lot of noise. Payments are higher. Rates might go down. Rates might go up. Prices might dip more. Maybe they bounce. But the thing most homeowners are actually worried about is simpler: "What happens to my monthly payment when I renew?" You're not alone, and it's not as bad as people think, as long as you don't leave it to the last minute.
Here in Winnipeg and across Manitoba, we're seeing the same trends - homeowners who locked in rates during the pandemic are now facing renewal decisions, and many are concerned about what their monthly payments will look like. Whether you're in Winnipeg, Brandon, Steinbach, or elsewhere in Manitoba, this guide applies to you.
There's a big wave of renewals happening right now. The Bank of Canada has flagged that about 60% of mortgage holders are expected to see a payment increase. They've also noted that about 60% of outstanding mortgages will renew before the end of 2026.
That doesn't mean everyone is in trouble. But it does mean a lot of people are going to be renewing at a higher rate than what they locked in years ago, especially anyone who secured a mortgage in 2021–2022. And at the same time, the housing market has been soft in many areas. For example, WOWA's January 20, 2026 update shows Canada's benchmark price at $660,300, down 4.0% year-over-year.
That combination (higher renewals + softer values) is why planning matters.
A mortgage renewal isn't just paperwork. It's one of the few times you can make meaningful changes without overcomplicating your life. Here are the most common mortgage renewal options that can help protect cash flow:
Many lenders will send a renewal letter that feels like it's the default option. It isn't. Shopping your renewal can mean:
A lot of people try to "guess" where rates are going. But timing the market is almost impossible. A better strategy is to pick a term based on:
Your financial life has probably changed since you got your current mortgage. Renewal time is when you can look at things like amortization remaining, payment frequency, whether your mortgage has good prepayment options, and penalty risk if you need flexibility later.
This is the question everyone asks. The honest answer is: it depends on your balance, rate, remaining amortization, and term. But to set expectations, the Bank of Canada estimates that compared with December 2024 payments, the average monthly mortgage payment could be about 6% higher for those renewing in 2026.
That's an average. Some people will see a small change. Others will feel a much bigger jump. You might have seen "$700 per month" used as an example online. That number can be real in certain scenarios. For instance, IG Wealth shared an example where moving from a low pandemic-era rate to around 4.75% resulted in an increase of almost $700 per month.
The key point is not the exact number. The key point is this: you want to know your range early, before your renewal becomes urgent.
A calculator is a great starting point (not the final answer). Tools like Ratehub's renewal calculator can help you estimate payment changes based on rate and amortization. Then the real work is deciding what options actually fit your situation.
If your payment increase is going to stretch you month to month, this is where a lot of people get stuck: They assume refinancing means an even bigger payment, because rates are higher now than 4–5 years ago. But that's not always true, because most households are not dealing with just a mortgage payment. They're dealing with credit cards, lines of credit, car loans, and other monthly debt payments.
When you refinance at renewal to consolidate higher-interest debt into the mortgage, your mortgage payment might rise slightly, but your total monthly payments often drop.
Example (simple math):
This is not about pretending debt disappears. It's about lowering the cost of carrying it and making your budget manageable again.
A lot of clients reach out for a refinance, then panic and renew instead because they feel ashamed about the debt, they think refinancing means "starting over," or they assume higher rates automatically mean higher payments. In reality, consolidating high-interest debt can be the thing that stops the spiral.
One more important piece: If home values continue to soften in your area, your available equity can shrink, which can reduce refinancing options. WOWA's national data shows the benchmark price down year-over-year. That doesn't mean you should panic. It means you should be proactive. If refinancing might help your cash flow, it's worth exploring sooner rather than later, while you have more flexibility.
People love to ask: "Should I go fixed or variable?" A better question is: What do you need most over the next 1–5 years? Here in Manitoba, where our housing market behaves differently from Toronto or Vancouver, the answer may be simpler than you think.
Fixed can make sense when you want predictable payments, predictable budgeting, and less mental load.
Variable (or shorter terms) can make sense when you want the ability to pivot, a plan to refinance or move, and different risk tolerance. There's no universal right answer. There's only what fits your cash flow and your plan.
If you take nothing else from this blog, take this. The biggest mistake is waiting until the renewal letter hits your inbox and you feel rushed.
Here's a simple mortgage renewal checklist:
A mortgage renewal in 2026 might come with a payment increase. That does not mean you're stuck. It just means you want to plan early and look at your full set of options: renewal strategy, term choice, mortgage renewal options beyond the "default," and whether a refinance at renewal could help your cash flow.
If you're a Winnipeg homeowner or live anywhere in Manitoba, I'd be happy to help you navigate your renewal options. I can help you run the numbers and map out a plan based on your renewal date and goals. No pressure. Just clarity.
Let's map out a plan based on your renewal date and goals. No pressure - just clarity on your options.
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